Agricultural panic or opportunity? The impact of Ukraine joining the EU
Ukraine's potential accession to the EU promises to bolster European food security, but necessitates a radical overhaul of the Common Agricultural Policy due to the sheer scale of the sector.
The potential accession of Ukraine and Moldova to the European Union has sparked significant debate within European agricultural circles. Farmers, already grappling with rising fuel costs and fierce competition, are apprehensive about changes to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which will inevitably require reform to integrate these vast new agricultural markets. Ukraine, often described as the "breadbasket of the world," possesses enormous potential: even accounting for territorial losses, the country maintains 32 million hectares of usable land, of which 26 million are currently under cultivation. For perspective, this is double the total arable land of France and three times that of Spain or Poland.
The primary challenge for the EU lies in the structure of Ukrainian agribusiness, a legacy of Soviet-era collectivization. Ukraine’s sector is dominated by large enterprises: the average farm size is 649 hectares, compared to 60–70 hectares in France and 11–12 hectares in Poland. Researcher Elsa Régnier of Sciences Po noted in a 2024 study that the agricultural component is among the most difficult aspects of the EU accession process. The European Commission has already acknowledged that significant effort will be required to adapt the bloc's policies to these new scales.
The uniqueness of Ukrainian agriculture is largely driven by its chernozem soil. Scientists like Mykhailo Mulenko from the Khortytsia National Reserve emphasize that in some central regions, the humus layer can reach one meter in thickness. This provides extraordinary fertility and resilience to intensive agricultural techniques. This soil became a target during the Russian invasion: Odessa ports were blockaded, factories in Kharkiv were destroyed, and land in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions was contaminated with mines. Despite this, Ukraine managed to maintain export routes and continue production, which former Minister of Agrarian Policy Roman Leshchenko described as a "second front" of the struggle.
Ukraine's integration into the EU has also highlighted existing tensions. Last autumn, new trade agreements triggered protests in several countries, including Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, where temporary bans on Ukrainian imports were imposed amid accusations of unfair competition. Farmers from Romania, such as Dănuț Andruș, whose face became emblematic of these protests, highlighted the risks of market destabilization. However, the discourse is gradually shifting from outright opposition to finding mechanisms that would allow the "breadbasket of Europe" to integrate without disrupting established market structures.
Ultimately, the question of Ukraine and Moldova joining the EU extends beyond economics, becoming a geopolitical test for European Union institutions. The success of this integration depends on whether Brussels can modernize its CAP to ensure the bloc's food stability without undermining the interests of farmers in existing EU member states. As experts and politicians seek a consensus, Ukrainian farmers continue to demonstrate resilience, viewing their sowing campaigns as a symbol of life and the fight for the country's future.