Kazakhstan Grain Market: High-Quality Grain Prices Fall While Low-Quality Wheat Rises

A paradoxical situation has developed in the Kazakhstan wheat market, where prices for lower-quality wheat are rising while high-quality grain is becoming cheaper. This trend was reported in a weekly grain market review by Yevgeny Karabanov, Head of the Analytics Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan. According to him, this phenomenon is driven by an abundant supply of high-quality wheat alongside a limited supply of lower-grade grain, which remains in high demand among processors, exporters, and poultry farms.

Over the past week, activity in the domestic wheat market remained subdued. Agricultural producers are in no rush to sell their crops, and the situation is further influenced by partial restrictions imposed by Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) on the approval of primary and additional shipping plans. According to the Analytics Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, domestic EXW prices at elevators in Akmola, Kostanay, and North Kazakhstan regions showed mixed dynamics.

Specifically, 3rd-class wheat with 23-24% gluten content was priced at 91-94 thousand tenge per ton including 16% VAT (up by 1 thousand tenge), while 25-26% gluten wheat stood at 92-96 thousand tenge. Meanwhile, premium 3rd-class wheat with 27% gluten was traded at 95-99 thousand tenge (-1 thousand), 28-29% gluten wheat at 99-103 thousand tenge (-1 thousand), and wheat with 30%+ gluten dropped to 104-108 thousand tenge (-1 thousand). Wheat of the 4th and 5th classes each increased by 1 thousand tenge, reaching 87-90 and 84-87 thousand tenge per ton, respectively.

The shipment pace of Kazakh wheat for export is gradually recovering, with the most significant price increases recorded in the lower classes. According to the weekly results, export prices on DAP Saryagash terms were as follows: 3rd class with 23-24% gluten at $267-272 per ton (+2), 25-26% gluten at $268-273 (+1), 27% gluten at $268-273 (0), 28-29% gluten at $278-283 (-1), and 30%+ gluten at $294-299 USD (-1).

Export quotes for 4th and 5th class wheat at the Saryagash station rose more substantially — by $3 per ton, reaching $258-262 and $248-253, respectively. In addition to limited domestic supply, price growth has been fueled by higher prices for Russian low-grade wheat due to overall price increases, rising delivery costs to Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries, and the strengthening of the Russian ruble against other currencies.