Projected Ukrainian wheat exports to drop to 11.5 million tons

Despite an improved harvest estimate, the USDA expects a decrease in external supplies of Ukrainian wheat. This is primarily driven by security risks and logistical limitations that restrain exports and contribute to the accumulation of stocks on the domestic market, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB) press service.

According to the November forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), wheat production estimates in Ukraine were raised by 0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons. At the same time, the export forecast was reduced by 1.0 million tons to 11.5 million tons, while ending stocks were increased by 1.2 million tons to 7.3 million tons.

On the global wheat market, the production forecast was raised by 5.12 million tons to 827.51 million tons. Specifically, harvest estimates increased for Australia by 1.5 million tons to 32.5 million tons, Argentina by 1.5 million tons to 23.0 million tons, and Kazakhstan by 0.8 million tons to 15.8 million tons.

Simultaneously, the global export forecast was lowered by 0.31 million tons to 208.66 million tons, partly due to a 1.0 million ton reduction in expected shipments from both Russia and Ukraine. Global consumption was raised by 1.65 million tons to 829.55 million tons.

Global ending stocks were increased by 4.78 million tons to 280.82 million tons. Consequently, despite higher consumption, improved production prospects and stock accumulation point to a easing of tensions in the global wheat balance.