Why Ukrainian Farmers Might Face a Shortage of Grain Storages in Early 2027

As of early October, Ukraine has accumulated approximately 42-43 million tons of grains and oilseeds, which is significantly higher than last year, while the bulk of corn and sunflower still needs to be harvested. According to the State Statistics Service, stocks at the beginning of October were 8 million tons, or about 23%, higher than in the same period last year.

Additionally, these figures exceed the average early October levels for the previous three years (2023-2025) by 12-14%. Official statistics may not account for grain stored directly by producers, meaning actual stocks are likely even higher.

The situation is complicated by the fact that a significant portion of late crops remains in the fields. According to analysts' estimates, at the beginning of October, farmers still had to harvest about 30 million tons of corn and 8 million tons of sunflower. These two crops alone could add approximately 38 million tons to the market, bringing total volumes to around 80 million tons.

For comparison, according to FAO estimates, effective grain and oilseed storage capacity in Ukraine is about 59 million tons. However, even this figure may be overestimated because some storage facilities have been damaged by the war, while territorial and logistics restrictions hinder the full use of port infrastructure.

The main issue remains restricted agricultural exports. Because the ports of Greater Odessa are not operating at full capacity, shipments amount to only 2-3 million tons per month; in September, Ukraine exported 2.4 million tons. At such a pace, exports fail to compensate for the influx of the new harvest, creating risks of storage shortages by early 2027.