Kharif Harvest Outlook: Strong prices expected for most crops, except Bajra and Moong

As the harvest season for Kharif crops draws near in India, with arrivals expected to begin in major mandis within 10 days, farmers in top-producing states are bracing for a mix of market outcomes. Recent data from Agmarknet as of September 4, 2026, indicates that nine out of 14 major Kharif crops, including maize, jowar, pigeon pea (tur), urad, and soybean, are currently selling at prices either at par with or exceeding the Minimum Support Price (MSP) set for the 2026-27 season.

However, there are notable concerns regarding Bajra (pearl millet) and Moong (green gram). Market prices for these two crops remain significantly suppressed, currently trading at 31% and 13% below their respective MSP levels. Despite these laggards, the general outlook for the broader Kharif harvest remains positive, as market dynamics for essential commodities like rice and oilseeds show signs of resilience against potential production dips.

Rice, the cornerstone of the Kharif season, maintains price stability, with government procurement playing a crucial role. In Uttar Pradesh, for instance, the average market price has reached ₹1,965 per quintal. Former officials from the agriculture ministry noted that since the government typically procures roughly 40% of the total rice production, market prices are expected to firm up as procurement operations ramp up across various states. Additionally, soybean prices have remained stronger than last year, and the groundnut crop in Gujarat is performing well, suggesting a healthy upward price trajectory.

Market sentiment is currently factoring in production losses attributed to the El-Nino weather phenomenon. While historical data suggests that lower yields are likely, the market has already internalized these expectations. S.K. Singh, former additional MD of Nafed, highlighted that the recent dip in soybean prices is likely a result of market cartelization and expects it to be temporary. He suggests that prices for most major crops will eventually align with their FAQ (Fair Average Quality) grade MSPs.

Official data reveals a slight decline in cultivation areas compared to the previous year. Maize acreage is down by 3% at 9.1 million hectares, while paddy coverage has trailed by 4% to 42.18 million hectares. Soybean and groundnut areas have also seen a minor reduction of about 1 lakh hectare each. Despite the acreage challenges, the only significant outlier for price recovery remains Moong, where the ongoing disposal of government stocks may continue to keep market prices below the support floor for the remainder of the season.