USDA Report: World Wheat and Corn Forecasts for the 2026/27 MY

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published its October report featuring revised global projections for wheat and corn production, trade, and ending stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year. According to the report, estimates for Ukraine's crop production and exports of both major grains remained unchanged compared to previous September figures.

Regarding the wheat market, the October forecast sets global wheat production at 822.39 million metric tons, virtually matching the September estimate of 822.43 million tons. Meanwhile, the global export forecast was revised downward to 208.97 million tons compared to 211.77 million tons. For Ukraine, USDA left its wheat harvest forecast steady at 26 million tons and exports at 12.5 million tons, with ending stocks remaining at 6.1 million tons.

For the United States, the wheat production forecast was slightly raised to 41.74 million tons from 41.66 million tons in September. U.S. wheat exports were adjusted to 20.41 million tons compared to 21.09 million tons, while ending stocks increased to 20.14 million tons from 19.51 million tons. China's wheat production forecast remained untouched at 141 million tons, with imports sustained at 6 million tons and ending stocks at 120.2 million tons.

Global corn production for the 2026/27 MY is projected by USDA at 1,293.75 million tons, representing an increase of 2.8 million tons over the September estimate of 1,290.95 million tons. World corn exports were raised to 210.72 million tons from 210.08 million tons. For Ukraine, the corn harvest forecast was kept at 31.8 million tons, exports at 22 million tons, and ending stocks were slightly upgraded to 5.53 million tons compared to 5.46 million tons in September.

Additionally, USDA significantly boosted its corn harvest forecast for the United States, raising it to 407.28 million tons from 401.33 million tons in September. U.S. corn exports grew to 83.82 million tons from 83.19 million tons, and ending stocks surged to 46.97 million tons compared to 39.79 million tons. For Argentina, the corn production forecast remained steady at 55 million tons and exports at 38 million tons, while Brazil's crop assessment also remained unchanged.