India projects record 2025-26 foodgrain harvest as rice and wheat set highs
India expects foodgrain production to rise by more than 5% in the 2025-26 crop year, with both rice and wheat reaching record levels even as cotton eases and weather risks remain in view.
India expects foodgrain production in the 2025-26 crop year to rise by more than 5% from the previous season, according to the government’s third advance estimate reported by BusinessLine. The increase is being led by rice and wheat, with rice projected to exceed 154 million tonnes and wheat to reach 120.66 million tonnes. Both figures would mark record output despite weather volatility and localised crop damage.
The scale of the harvest matters because it gives the country a stronger supply cushion ahead of a potentially more difficult next season. At the time of publication, the monsoon had already missed its forecast onset date of May 26, while the market was also watching the possible emergence of drought-linked El Nino conditions. That makes the 2025-26 result important not just as a record but as a buffer for domestic food supply management.
Wheat output has been revised up to 120.66 million tonnes from an earlier estimate of 120.21 million tonnes and is 2.3% above the 117.94 million tonnes recorded in 2024-25. That increase comes despite localised losses caused by unseasonal rain and hail. Rice production is pegged at 154.02 million tonnes, up 2.6% from 150.18 million tonnes a year earlier, reinforcing India’s position as the world’s largest rice producer.
Other crops show a more mixed pattern. Cotton production is estimated at 29.02 million bales of 170 kilograms each, down 2.4% from 29.72 million bales in 2024-25. Pulses, by contrast, are expected to reach 27.41 million tonnes, up 6.7% from 25.68 million tonnes, while maize is projected for the first time above the 50 million tonne mark at 55.09 million tonnes, a sharp rise from 43.41 million tonnes.
Within the pulse and oilseed complex, the details are equally uneven. Gram is seen at 12.51 million tonnes versus 11.11 million tonnes a year earlier, lentil at 1.76 million tonnes versus 1.65 million tonnes, and tur at 3.59 million tonnes versus 3.62 million tonnes. Total oilseed output is little changed at 43.06 million tonnes from 42.99 million tonnes, but soyabean falls to 12.6 million tonnes from 15.27 million tonnes, while mustard rises to a record 13.77 million tonnes from 12.67 million tonnes.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan linked the record estimates to government support and the work of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research and its institutes. He highlighted climate-resilient crop varieties, rain-fed production technologies and the transfer of research to the field as major contributors. For agricultural markets, the message is that India enters the next weather cycle with a stronger grain position, even though vulnerability remains in specific crops where production trends are less stable.