Can Belarus Replace Canada As US Potash Provider?

US President Donald Trump has stated that a 'massive deal' is under discussion with Belarus to provide cheaper potash supplies than Canada. However, questions have swirled since the announcement over whether the Eastern European nation can fully replace the world's largest potash producer to meet American import demands.

According to USGS figures published in February, the United States imported 79 percent of its potash from Canada between 2021 and 2024. During this period, Belarusian potash was subject to US sanctions, which were finally lifted on March 19. Prior to these trade restrictions, Belarus accounted for about 5 percent of the US potash market needs.

While Belarus theoretically possesses the production capacity to ramp up exports — having produced roughly 6 million metric tons in 2025 to rank fourth globally behind China, Russia, and Canada — doing so requires rerouting existing commitments. China alone receives about 27 percent of Belarusian exports, alongside major shipments to Brazil and India.

Logistics remain a major stumbling block. Because the European Union has not lifted its sanctions, Lithuania refuses transit through the port of Klaipeda. Consequently, Belarus must route shipments through Russian rail and port facilities, which are already congested with grain and coal. Furthermore, industry experts highlight technical discrepancies, noting that Belaruskali predominantly produces pink potash, whereas the US market largely consumes white potash varieties.

Despite these hurdles, trade is resuming. Argus commodity market intelligence reported that the first Belarusian cargo in four years — a 30,000 metric ton shipment — is scheduled to arrive in New Orleans next month. While this marks the resumption of bilateral trade following the lifting of US sanctions, analysts agree that Belarus cannot fully replace Canadian import volumes.