Iran conflict disrupts fertilizer routes, pushes prices up for Canadian farmers
Threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are tightening fertilizer supplies and lifting prices; Canadian growers face higher input costs ahead of spring seeding.
The conflict involving Iran and risks around the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting key global routes for fertilizers and energy, with immediate implications for supply and pricing. Industry observers warn nitrogen-based fertilizers, urea, potash and other inputs could face reduced availability and higher costs as shipping corridors become uncertain.
Fertilizer Canada and market analysts say disruptions to global production or trade would feed through to Canadian farmers. Although Canada is the world’s largest potash producer, global market dynamics still determine availability and prices for many fertilizer types used by growers across the country.
Canada produced 32.8% of global potash in 2024, roughly 76.1 million tonnes, underlining its leading production role. Still, fertilizers such as nitrogen and urea depend on energy and shipping routes that can be affected by Middle East tensions, so domestic producers and growers remain exposed to global volatility.
Market participants point to tight global supply: Kreg Ruhl of Growmark says multiple regions are competing for limited fertilizer volumes. Mike Bourque of Fertilizer Canada stresses that international market shifts will influence what Canadian farmers can buy and at what price this spring.
Experts from the University of Guelph, including economist Mike von Massow, note that disruptions in the Hormuz corridor could also affect liquefied natural gas and crude oil deliveries to eastern Canada. That would raise freight and energy costs tied to fertilizer production, adding another upward pressure on prices.
Farmers are already reporting concern over rising input costs. One Ontario farmer cited a potential urea price near $1,200 per tonne if shipping routes are constrained — a level that would materially affect planting budgets as spring demand peaks.
Nutrien has indicated expected potash sales in the range of 14.1–14.8 million tonnes for the year, highlighting persistent demand in the sector. Combined with last year’s tariff-related volatility, the current geopolitical tensions add to supply uncertainty for Canadian agriculture.
Overall, farmers and analysts warn that global shocks in fertilizer markets typically translate quickly into higher input costs domestically, and many in Canada are preparing for tighter supply and higher prices as the seeding season approaches.