Global food production to slow in 2026: FAO report
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN forecasts a 2% decline in global cereal production and warns of supply chain risks.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has projected a slowdown in global food production for the upcoming year, according to its latest report. A primary concern highlighted is the anticipated two percent decline in global cereal production, which is expected to reach 2.982 billion tonnes. This marks the first such drop following a period of record harvests, although experts suggest that current ample global stocks should help shield international markets from immediate shortages.
FAO identifies several critical factors threatening the agricultural sector. These include increasing climate-related risks, such as the potential emergence of El Niño, alongside geopolitical instability, energy and fertilizer market volatility, and uncertainties in trade policy and logistics. FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero stated that while agrifood systems appear robust at a production level, the accumulation of these risks carries the potential for rapid and adverse impacts on global food access.
The outlook for specific commodities remains varied. Wheat production is forecast to fall by 3.8 percent to 810.9 million tonnes, largely driven by lower yields and reduced planting in Australia, the European Union, and the United States, where output could decrease by over 21 percent. Coarse grain production is also set to decline by 1.2 percent, though a stronger maize harvest in Argentina is expected to offset some of the losses from North America.
Conversely, some sectors are showing growth. Global soybean production is expected to reach a record 432.3 million tonnes, bolstered by expanding output in Brazil and Russia. The livestock sector is projected to grow by one percent, primarily led by a 2.5 percent increase in poultry production. Meanwhile, global fisheries and aquaculture output is projected to climb to 200.5 million tonnes, with aquaculture continuing to expand its footprint in the global supply chain.
The report also raises significant concerns regarding the fertilizer market, where global trade volumes dropped by 20 to 25 percent during the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period in the previous year. Although fertilizer prices have recently eased, FAO warns that stalled purchasing activity in Europe and North America, coupled with shipping uncertainties through the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to tighter supplies ahead of the next planting season, particularly impacting Low-Income Food-Deficient Countries.