Climate change won't end skiing but will raise costs and strain rural agri-economies
Higher costs for artificial snow and shorter seasons threaten resort revenues and local agricultural supply chains, reducing seasonal income for rural areas dependent on winter tourism.
Climate change is unlikely to eliminate skiing and snowboarding, but it is already reshaping the sector in ways that matter for rural agri-economies. Resorts increasingly rely on extensive snowmaking to compensate for declining natural snowfall; snowmaking uses substantial energy and water and becomes more expensive as conditions warm, affecting operating budgets and local inputs.
A case study of Blue Mountain, Ontario, finds that even if global warming stays below 2°C, the resort’s season could shorten by about 8% by 2050. To maintain operations, snowmaking would need to nearly double and the window for effective snow production would shrink, driving up costs for energy and water supplies that often tie into regional infrastructure used by farms and food processors.
Rising resort costs are likely to be passed to visitors through higher lift tickets and services. For adjacent agricultural businesses this can reduce demand for seasonal products and services — from farm-to-table outlets to local food suppliers and hospitality providers — leading to volatile seasonal revenues and employment in rural communities.
Smaller resorts may need to borrow to finance modern snowmaking equipment, increasing debt exposure and potentially reducing competition. Fewer viable competitors and higher fixed costs can sustain higher prices, prolonging pressure on local economies that depend on winter tourism to support farms, seasonal labour and local food chains.
Participation data from 2019–20 show the sport’s demographics remain skewed: 69% of skiers and 61% of snowboarders identified as white; a National Ski Areas Association survey found 87.5% of U.S. visits were by white individuals and only 1.5% by Black or African American visitors. Income data show over 63% of skiers and 55% of snowboarders reported household incomes above $75,000. These patterns affect who benefits economically from winter tourism and which communities receive seasonal agri-service demand.
The authors recommend three actions to protect inclusion and the broader regional economy: partner with community organizations focused on inclusion; engage nonprofits like the National Brotherhood of Skiers to connect underrepresented communities to winter sports; and create senior diversity, equity and inclusion roles within resort management. Including diverse communities in climate adaptation planning could help preserve broader access and stabilize demand for agricultural suppliers in resort regions.
The analysis is by Brian P. McCullough (Texas A&M University) and Lance Warwick (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign). For agricultural stakeholders, the findings highlight a need to factor changing winter-tourism economics into planning for seasonal supply chains and rural livelihoods.