Rains lift Türkiye's grain outlook but damage fruit and vegetable quality
Heavier rainfall in Türkiye has revived grain prospects after two drought years, but fruit and vegetable quality has deteriorated and rust has appeared in some cereal fields.
Heavier rainfall across Türkiye has produced a split outcome for agriculture. According to Hürriyet Daily News, fruit and vegetable quality has been hurt and rust disease has appeared in some cereal fields, yet the same rains have sharply improved the outlook for wheat and barley after two difficult drought years. In several regions, grain output is now expected to more than double from last year.
The report says climate change has generally weighed on farm productivity and pushed food prices higher, but this season the increase in rainfall has brought clear relief for grain growers. Representatives of agricultural chambers in different provinces said excessive rain created losses for fruit and vegetable producers while acting as a lifeline for grain farms. They also cautioned that the financial benefit to producers will still depend on procurement prices announced during harvest.
Mustafa Hepokur, a board member of the Union of Chambers of Agriculture of Türkiye and head of the Konya Meram Chamber of Agriculture, said the rainfall had brought abundance to grain production and could lift yields by around 35 percent. Hikmet Ipar, head of the Hilvan Chamber of Agriculture in Sanliurfa, said drought had damaged 1.6 million decares of farmland in the province last year, with losses near 70 percent. He said the latest rains have delivered grain yields more than 100 percent above last year and 30 to 40 percent above average years.
The first official crop estimates from the Turkish Statistical Institute support that shift. Total cereal production in 2026 is projected at about 41.6 million tonnes, up 21.7 percent year on year. Wheat output is forecast at 22.8 million tonnes, a rise of 26.7 percent, while barley production is expected to jump 50 percent to 9 million tonnes. Corn is the exception, with output seen falling 5.9 percent to 8 million tonnes.
Vegetable production is expected to remain broadly unchanged from last year, while fruit, beverage and spice crops are projected to rise 57.8 percent to around 31 million tonnes. For the Turkish farm economy, that points to a season in which rainfall supports broad grain recovery while exposing a different weakness in horticulture, where quality losses and plant disease remain a serious commercial risk.