Geopolitical crisis, weather may help India export 2 mt of wheat, says USDA
USDA lifted its forecast for India’s wheat exports to 2 million tonnes as global output tightens, major exporters face weather damage and India reopens wheat exports after the 2023 ban.
The US Department of Agriculture has raised its forecast for India’s wheat exports in 2026-27 to 2 million tonnes, up sharply from 0.25 million tonnes a month earlier. The revision comes after India removed the wheat export ban that had been in place since May 2023 and as the global grain market faces tighter supplies because of adverse weather and geopolitical disruption.
In its Grain: World Markets and Trade report, USDA pegged global wheat production for 2026-27 at 819.1 million tonnes, down 24.8 million tonnes from the record 2025-26 crop. The largest cuts are among major exporters: the United States down 11.5 million tonnes, the EU down 9.1 million, Argentina down 6.9 million, Australia down 6 million, Canada down 5 million, Kazakhstan down 4.3 million and Russia down 4.3 million tonnes.
Prices have already reacted. Wheat is trading around $6.60 a bushel, which the report described as a 23-month high. An analyst cited in the article said US wheat prices recently gained about $17 per tonne because of drought conditions. Exporters also pointed to the Iran war as a factor lifting crude oil and fertilizer prices, reinforcing bullish expectations across agricultural commodities in the second half of the year.
India’s export opportunity has opened against that backdrop, although domestic production estimates remain contested. India’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare has projected a record wheat crop of 120 million tonnes, but a survey by the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India suggested production could be at least 5 million tonnes lower. Even so, the Food Corporation of India has already procured more than 30 million tonnes through the minimum support price system, and wheat stocks on 1 April stood at 21.8 million tonnes.
The article also shows the pricing context behind possible exports. India’s MSP this year is Rs 2,585 per quintal, while market prices in APMC yards were around Rs 2,450. US soft red winter wheat was quoted near $260 a tonne, European wheat around $230, and Indian wheat about $270-275 a tonne. USDA also warned that global rice and corn production are expected to decline, which raises the strategic importance of India’s wheat availability for regional and global grain trade.