War-linked input costs push food prices higher in Türkiye and global markets
Higher fertilizer and transport costs after the Middle East escalation are feeding into food inflation in Türkiye and into broader global commodity markets.
The Middle East conflict is increasingly spilling into food inflation, with Türkiye already seeing higher input costs and the global market registering a faster rise in key food categories. Hurriyet Daily News reported that the inflationary effects have become more visible since Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran. For agriculture, the immediate transmission channels are fertilizer, fuel and freight.
In Türkiye, fertilizer prices have climbed by between 8 percent and 55 percent since the conflict began. The report said fruit prices in particular are expected to face upward pressure in the coming months. According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute, domestic food inflation in March was 1.8 percent month on month. Over the same month, the overall consumer price index rose 1.94 percent, while annual inflation eased from 31.53 percent in February to 30.87 percent in March.
Transport costs have also accelerated because the Hormuz crisis pushed oil above $100 a barrel. TÜİK figures showed monthly transport inflation rising from 2.58 percent in February to 4.52 percent in March. That matters for the farm economy because higher energy prices raise both production costs and the cost of moving inputs and harvested goods through the supply chain.
The impact is visible beyond Türkiye. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said global food prices increased by 2.4 percent in March, compared with a 0.9 percent rise in February. Energy-related pressure on vegetable oils and sugar was a major factor. Compared with February, global meat prices rose 1 percent in March, dairy rose 1.2 percent, cereals 1.5 percent, vegetable oils 5.1 percent and sugar 7.2 percent, with sugar reaching its highest level since November 2025.
Türkiye has already started to respond on the policy side. The Turkish Union of Chambers of Agriculture confirmed the domestic spike in fertilizer prices after Feb. 28, reinforcing expectations that higher input costs will pass through into food prices. Last week the government adjusted customs duties on fertilizer imports, cutting tariffs to zero for ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate, calcium ammonium nitrate and diammonium phosphate, while keeping a 6.5 percent rate for certain other groups. For a country heavily dependent on imported chemical fertilizers, that move is aimed at containing further cost escalation.