Hormuz disruption risk adds pressure to Turkey’s fertilizer-dependent farm sector
Turkey’s farm economy faces new fertilizer supply risks via Hormuz while still absorbing last year’s climate and cost shock.
Turkey’s agricultural sector is entering the new cycle under layered stress: climate damage and high input costs are now joined by supply-chain risk for fertilizer flows linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Hurriyet Daily News reports that disruption fears tied to the Iran crisis are adding a new external pressure point for producers.
The article cites a steep 2025 contraction profile in agriculture: output fell 2 percent in the first quarter, 3.5 percent in the second, and 12.7 percent in the third. Overall, the sector contracted 8.8 percent versus the previous year, highlighting how quickly multiple shocks can compound across farm economics.
Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek had linked the decline mainly to prolonged frost and drought effects. But industry representatives argue that weather alone does not explain the depth of losses. Baki Remzi Suicmez of the Chamber of Agricultural Engineers said structural weaknesses are central and continue to magnify each new stress event.
He pointed to an overlapping risk stack that includes drought, frost, hail, floods, foot-and-mouth disease, and brown marmorated stink bug pressure. According to his assessment, extraordinary field conditions have not been matched with equally strong emergency support packages, while import dependence keeps input-price vulnerability high.
International exposure is also significant. The report notes, citing WTO findings, that about one-third of global fertilizer exports transit Hormuz. That creates import risk not only for Turkey but for major buyers such as India, Thailand, and Brazil, reinforcing the global nature of fertilizer logistics sensitivity.
Experts in the article said Turkey currently holds adequate domestic fertilizer stocks, yet warned that prolonged disruption could still reduce yields and tighten supply in the coming harvest season. For farm businesses, that implies renewed margin pressure, harder procurement planning, and stronger urgency around structural resilience in input sourcing and production strategy.