Hormuz disruption raises global food-security risks through fertilizer shock
Shipping and gas disruptions tied to the Iran war are tightening fertilizer supply and raising food-security risks for major crop producers.
The Iran war is no longer only an energy story for agriculture. Al Jazeera reports that disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has quickly turned into a fertilizer risk, directly affecting planting economics in import-dependent farming systems. As logistics became unstable in one of the world’s most sensitive maritime corridors, fertilizer buyers entered spring with tighter supply visibility.
The structural exposure is significant. Gulf exporters account for nearly half of globally traded urea, and the region supplies roughly 46% of world urea output. Around 20% of world fertilizer origin is also linked to the Gulf. When gas-linked production cuts and shipping interruptions hit that cluster, the impact moved rapidly from freight and energy into farm-input pricing.
Price signals in the report are explicit: Middle East urea export values jumped by about 40%, from just under $500 to above $700 per metric tonne, and remained close to 60% higher than a year earlier. Timing is a major risk amplifier because the Northern Hemisphere sowing window runs from mid-February to early May. Farmers cannot easily postpone nutrient decisions without yield consequences.
Country-level stress is already visible. After attacks on LNG facilities, Qatar halted output at a major urea operation. India reduced output at three domestic urea plants, while Bangladesh shut four of its five fertilizer factories. The US was described as running close to a 25% seasonal fertilizer shortfall. Market analytics cited in the story also indicate that up to one-third of global fertilizer trade could be disrupted if Hormuz constraints persist.
For agri-economics, the implications are broader than input inflation alone. Higher fertilizer and energy costs can compress margins, alter application rates, and introduce additional uncertainty into crop volumes and export availability from key producers such as India, Brazil, and China. Even if military escalation eases, fertilizer markets may normalize more slowly because shipping schedules, plant restart cycles, and procurement contracts typically adjust with delay.