FAO warns prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could trigger a global food crisis
The FAO says a long disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly move from a shipping problem to a food crisis by lifting energy, fertilizer and farm input costs worldwide.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned on April 14 that a prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could turn into a global food problem. In the FAO’s assessment, agriculture is highly exposed to that route because it carries energy, fertilizers and other basic inputs needed to produce food. The agency is not yet calling an immediate food shortage, but it says the risk would rise quickly if the disruption lasts.
FAO chief economists Maximo Torero and David Laborde said the market still has some short-term buffers, including existing stocks and a solid supply season for several crops, especially wheat. Those factors reduce the chance of an instant shock for consumers. But they also stressed that the cushion is temporary: if transport problems continue into the second half of 2026 and beyond, the issue will no longer be only logistics but the full cost structure of farming.
The FAO’s biggest concern is fertilizer. The agency said a large share of agrifood inputs depends on sea flows through the strait, while nearly half of global urea trade moves through the Gulf. When that bottleneck is disturbed, the price pressure spreads far beyond fertilizer itself to natural gas, diesel, freight and marine insurance. For farmers, that means more expensive production on every hectare; for consumers, it means renewed pressure on retail food inflation.
According to the FAO, early stress is already visible in the supply chain. Some fertilizer plants in the region have reduced output or temporarily halted operations as gas and shipping disruptions intensified. If that pattern continues, farmers in poorer and import-dependent countries may cut fertilizer application, switch production plans or reduce acreage for more input-intensive crops. The effect often appears with a delay, in the next crop cycle, through lower yields and tighter food availability rather than an immediate retail shortage.
The organization said the most vulnerable countries are those whose planting calendars are tightly linked to imported fuel and fertilizer deliveries. Even a short delay at a critical planting window can reduce production, accelerate food inflation and weaken growth. That is why the FAO urged governments to avoid export restrictions on energy and fertilizers and to restore the normal flow of farm inputs through the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as possible.