Corn prices ease as Iran-US ceasefire reduces fertiliser supply risk
Corn prices moved lower after the Iran-US ceasefire reduced immediate fears over nitrogen fertiliser flows through the Strait of Hormuz, though wider supply risks remain in place.
Corn prices slipped to a four-week low after the Iran-US ceasefire reduced the most immediate threat to nitrogen fertiliser availability through the Strait of Hormuz. BusinessLine, citing BMI from Fitch Solutions, reported that this supply-chain risk had been one of the main reasons corn prices were carrying a geopolitical premium during the conflict. With the ceasefire in place, that near-term premium began to unwind.
BMI nevertheless cautioned that the truce does not remove all of the risks introduced by the war. USDA data cited in the article showed mixed export bid movements since March 10. Argentine bids were up 1 dollar to 209 dollars per tonne, Brazilian bids were down 4 dollars to 225, Ukrainian bids rose 2 dollars to 227 as nearby demand strengthened, and US bids fell 4 dollars to 217 dollars per tonne after a grain stocks report pointed to very large domestic availability.
Against that backdrop, BMI raised its 2026 annual average forecast for the second-month CBOT corn contract from 450 to 458.2 US cents per bushel. The agency now expects average prices of 453 cents in the second quarter, 462 cents in the third quarter and 470 cents in the fourth quarter. At the time of publication, corn futures were trading around 442.69 cents per bushel, showing that some of the earlier conflict premium had already been priced out.
Fundamentals are also leaning bearish in the short run. ING Think said the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report pushed 2025-26 ending stocks to 294.8 million tonnes, above market expectations of 293.2 million tonnes. USDA also projected the 2025-26 corn crop at 1.32 billion tonnes, up from 1.23 billion tonnes in 2024-26, with higher output expected in countries including India, Indonesia and South Africa.
Longer term, the market picture is less straightforward. The International Grains Council sees 2026-27 production at 1.30 billion tonnes while consumption could rise by 13 million tonnes to 1.315 billion tonnes. BMI argued that US acreage may shrink more sharply than indicated in the March 31 prospective plantings report because farmers are shifting toward crops that need less nutrient-intensive fertiliser. In that scenario, the global balance would tighten again and stocks-to-use could fall from 21.8 percent to 20.9 percent.
The article adds that the ceasefire remains fragile and that shipping normalization through the Strait of Hormuz will be critical for fertiliser flows. Brazil still depends on imports for about 85 percent of its fertiliser demand, leaving its corn sector especially exposed. A separate Chinese ban on phosphate exports through August is adding to the uncertainty. BMI also noted that elevated Brent crude prices continue to support the corn market through the ethanol link, meaning downside pressure on prices is real but not unlimited.