FAO warns El Nino could hit India’s monsoon, rice and maize output
FAO says the new El Nino phase could weaken India’s summer monsoon and put rain-fed rice and maize under stress during the kharif season. The agency also warns of broader food-security and farm-cost risks across Asia.
The Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that the new El Nino phase may weaken India’s summer monsoon and add stress to rain-fed crops during the crucial kharif season. Rice and maize are at the center of the risk because both depend heavily on rainfall patterns during the coming months. The warning was published on June 15, 2026 after the new El Nino phase was formally recognized.
FAO said the threat extends beyond individual fields to food security in regions that are already vulnerable. In its assessment, agricultural drought risk runs across South and Southeast Asia, from Pakistan and India through Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, and farther east to the Philippines, Indonesia and Timor-Leste.
The agency pointed to the 2015-16 El Nino as a useful benchmark. During that episode, India’s maize output fell by 4% and rice production dropped by 1%. Across Southeast Asia, rice losses reached about 15 million tonnes, pushing prices higher and increasing pressure on import-dependent countries.
FAO said its conclusions draw on 41 years of historical satellite imagery showing where strong El Nino events have caused the most severe agricultural drought. It argues that this cycle could be more damaging than previous ones because it is unfolding in a warmer climate and against a backdrop of conflict and existing food insecurity. More than 80% of projected drought impacts are expected to fall on low- and middle-income countries.
Another source of pressure is the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which FAO says is already pushing up energy and fertilizer costs as farmers prepare for sowing. That means growers face a combined shock from weather risk and rising input costs. The agency notes that when rainfall fails, agriculture is hit first, but the damage quickly spreads to livelihoods, livestock and rural resilience.
FAO argues that early action can still reduce losses. It cited Southern Africa, where nearly $31 million was directed ahead of the 2023-24 El Nino season to more than 2 million people in seven countries for seeds, livestock support and early-warning systems. Its main message is that early warning only becomes effective prevention when governments and markets act on it in time.