El Nino threatens kharif crop yields across India, ICAR-linked study shows
An ICAR-linked study found that El Nino years consistently cut yields of major kharif crops across many Indian districts. Researchers are urging policymakers to strengthen contingency plans through drought-tolerant varieties, agro-advisories and better water management.
A study by scientists in India’s ICAR system has found that El Nino events consistently reduce the yields of major kharif crops across large parts of the country. The Economic Times reported that research led by Subash N. Pillai at the ICAR-Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research documented significant declines in the production of paddy, maize, sorghum and pearl millet during weaker monsoon years linked to El Nino.
According to the study, paddy output fell by more than 10 percent in 77 districts, while maize production dropped by more than 10 percent in 65 districts during El Nino years. Sorghum and pearl millet yields also declined by more than 10 percent in 36 districts each. The strongest impact was observed in major rice-growing states including Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha.
El Nino is a climate pattern marked by warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and is commonly associated with a weaker monsoon over India. The researchers examined three El Nino years, 2002, 2004 and 2009. Their findings were published in 2023 in Elsevier’s Climate Services journal, but the issue has become immediately relevant again because Pillai said El Nino conditions are likely to prevail this year as well.
Pillai said the study revealed substantial spatial and temporal variability in Indian summer monsoon rainfall during El Nino years, which translated into meaningful productivity losses in major kharif crops. He said the work identified many highly vulnerable districts where yields declined by more than 10 percent and that this underlines the need for climate-resilient agricultural planning at district level, not only broad national policy responses.
Now serving as head of the Division of Agricultural Physics at the ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, Pillai said policymakers should strengthen contingency planning through drought-tolerant crop varieties, weather-based agro-advisory services, efficient water management and location-specific adaptation strategies. Those measures, he argued, would help minimize agricultural losses and safeguard farmer livelihoods if weak monsoon conditions materialize again.
For India’s crop sector, the message is that weather risk is once more a direct production threat rather than an abstract climate warning. Because the kharif season depends heavily on monsoon rainfall, even moderate moisture stress can quickly reduce grain and feed output in the districts identified as most exposed.