Two-year rainfall deficit deepens chronic drought risks for Turkish farms
A two-year rainfall deficit is pushing parts of Turkey into chronic drought, raising risks for crops, reservoirs and drinking-water supplies.
Turkish meteorologist and climate expert Mikdat Kadioglu has warned that the country's two-year rainfall deficit has turned into chronic drought. Citing data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, he said the sharpest deterioration is now concentrated in western and central parts of the country, where the impact on farming is becoming more visible.
According to the 24-month data cited in the report, severe and extreme drought has spread across much of inland western and central Turkey. Inland western provinces are described as the most critical area from an agricultural drought perspective. Winter precipitation did not restore soil moisture to normal levels, leaving crop establishment and yield potential exposed ahead of the new season.
Around the Marmara region, including Bursa, Bilecik, Bolu and Sakarya, drought signals remain visible in both the 12-month and 24-month series. Some rainfall was recorded around Konya, Aksaray and Nevsehir, but Kadioglu said it was not enough to fully reverse the deficit. For farms that depend on stored soil moisture, that means the stress period is not over.
Conditions are very different in eastern Turkey, from Sivas to Hakkari and in parts of Southeastern Anatolia, where the report describes the situation as wet or very wet. That may help some agricultural areas, but it also raises flood, flash-flood and landslide risks. Diyarbakir, Sirnak, Siirt, Batman and Mardin were all cited as receiving above-normal rainfall, while the eastern Black Sea coast faces a higher landslide threat.
At the same time, the long-running precipitation shortfall remains unresolved on the Mediterranean coast, including Mersin, Adana and Antalya. If drought persists there, pressure will intensify on fruit, vegetable and irrigated production. Even where short-term rainfall has improved surface conditions, cumulative water reserves have not yet recovered to a safe level.
Kadioglu also stressed that hydrological drought lags behind meteorological drought, meaning reservoirs and groundwater respond more slowly than rainfall charts do. In Marmara and inland eastern regions, those water bodies have still not been sufficiently replenished, and Ankara remains at risk on drinking water, he said. His conclusion was that drought is no longer only a natural phenomenon, but also a social and economic problem with direct consequences for farmers and food production.