El Nino raises farm and food-price risks across Southeast Asia
DW reports that an expected strong El Nino threatens rice, palm oil and household budgets across Southeast Asia. Analysts warn of lower crop output, higher prices and growing political pressure on governments in the region.
Southeast Asia is bracing for a strong El Nino episode that could arrive while households are already struggling with expensive energy, transport and food. DW reports that the World Meteorological Organization expects El Nino conditions to emerge before August 2026 and continue at least until November. That timing matters because the region normally depends on monsoon rains during these months to refill reservoirs and prepare fields for the next planting season.
If the rains arrive late or prove weaker than normal, farmers may cut planted area, delay sowing or shift away from water-intensive crops. Paul Teng of the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute told DW that Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Cambodia are especially exposed. He estimated that regional rice output could fall by 2% to 8% versus a normal year, with even larger local losses in drought-prone areas.
Rice is the most politically sensitive crop in the region because it is both the main staple and a core source of rural income. Palm oil is the second major concern. Indonesia and Malaysia together account for around 85% of global supply, and higher temperatures can reduce bunch formation and oil extraction, with effects often appearing six to twelve months later.
Analysts also link the climate threat to rising gas and fertilizer costs tied to the war around Iran and related logistics pressure. Jason Lee of the Global Heat Health Information Network warned that a farm-level shock can quickly spill into a broader food-price and inflation crisis. The Asian Development Bank has already cut its 2026 growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific from 5.1% to 4.7%, citing much of the damage from the Iran war.
DW also points to inflation signals already visible in the region. Inflation in the Philippines was still above target in May at 6.8%, Vietnam’s annual inflation rate rose to 5.6%, and Indonesia has seen a 32% jump in some non-subsidized fuel prices. Governments are therefore trying to preserve subsidies, protect consumers and prevent food shortages at the same time.
The risk may extend well beyond commodity markets. Helena Varkkey of Universiti Malaya said a major El Nino raises the likelihood of transboundary haze from fires, creating public-health and diplomatic pressure. Taken together, climate stress, costly energy and food inflation could turn the 2026 season into a serious test for farmers, importers and governments across Southeast Asia.