Why U.S. agriculture believes CUSMA will survive Trump's threats
Despite President Donald Trump's harsh public stance on the trade deal with Canada and Mexico, key U.S. agricultural leaders remain confident in the agreement's long-term survival.
Whatever disparaging remarks U.S. President Donald Trump may direct at the trade deal he negotiated with Canada and Mexico during his first term, the powerful agricultural lobby in Washington remains largely unfazed. As the agreement, known in the U.S. as USMCA, approaches a joint review on July 1, industry leaders are projecting confidence that the pact will endure. They argue that the benefits delivered to American farmers, food processors, and consumers are too significant to risk dismantling the trade structure.
Trump has recently labeled the agreement irrelevant and suggested that the U.S. might be better off without it, even highlighting its termination clause as a primary feature. However, insiders meeting at a Washington D.C. conference this Wednesday signaled that the agreement’s integration across North American markets has created a framework that is difficult to replace. They believe the success of the deal is a primary deterrent against any attempt to rescind it, despite Trump's second-term rhetoric.
Darci Vetter, former chief agricultural negotiator under the Obama administration and current vice-president at Driscoll's, expressed clear optimism regarding the agreement's future. While she acknowledges that the road ahead may be "a bumpy ride" due to the president's genuine skepticism toward multilateral trade deals, she remains confident that the USMCA will hold. She points to the fact that Canada and Mexico were granted broad exemptions from global tariffs as evidence of the agreement's inherent strength and utility for the U.S. economy.
John Bode, president and CEO of the Corn Refiners Association, echoed these sentiments, framing the uncertainty in current talks as merely a standard part of the negotiation process. "The evidence is so compelling that this agreement is to the benefit of North Americans... and it would be bad for all of us for it to fall apart," Bode stated. For industry leaders, the integration of supply chains between the three nations makes the agreement not just a political preference, but an economic necessity that cannot be easily discarded.
Gregg Doud, president of the National Milk Producers Federation and a former chief negotiator during Trump's first term, went as far as to label the CUSMA as the "gold standard" for global trade agreements. As the administration enters rounds of negotiations with Mexico and engages in discussions with Canada, the legal reality remains that the agreement is set to continue until 2036, barring a six-month notice of withdrawal. Agriculture experts believe that the overwhelming consensus among stakeholders will continue to act as a stabilizing force, effectively neutralizing attempts to derail this landmark deal.