Soybean market set to soften as US acreage expands and Brazil harvest grows
Analysts expect soybean prices to face stronger supply pressure in the second half of 2026 as US plantings rise, global output grows and Brazil brings another large crop to market.
The global soybean market, which has had a strong start to 2026, may move into a softer phase in the second half of the year. The Hindu BusinessLine, citing BMI of Fitch Solutions, reported that US farmers’ shift toward soybeans and away from corn is building a more bearish fundamental outlook. Soybeans have already risen about 12% since the start of 2026, but analysts increasingly expect the early-year momentum to fade.
BMI raised its average annual forecast for second-month CBOT soybean futures to 1,130 cents a bushel, which would still represent a 7.7% year-on-year increase. The forecast revision was supported by two near-term factors: stronger-than-expected US-China trade volumes in late 2025 and early 2026, and price appreciation tied to the onset of the US-Iran conflict. Even so, BMI said those supports are likely to prove temporary as attention turns back to the underlying supply picture.
That supply outlook is becoming heavier. The International Grains Council expects global soybean production in the 2026/27 season to rise to 442.3 million tonnes from 425.9 million tonnes in 2025/26. Total availability is projected at 520.4 million tonnes compared with 507.7 million tonnes a year earlier, while crushing is forecast at 391.1 million tonnes and consumption at 423 million tonnes. On those numbers, the market would still be left with a global production surplus of 4.1 million tonnes.
US planting intentions are reinforcing that view. In its Prospective Plantings report, the US Department of Agriculture said growers intend to plant 84.7 million acres of soybeans in 2026, up 4% from last year, with acreage up or unchanged in 20 of 29 reporting states. One reason is the recent jump in nitrogen fertilizer prices, which has improved the relative economics of soybeans versus corn and strengthened the case for rotating more land into oilseeds.
BMI’s quarterly outlook also points to easing prices through the year. It expects an average of 1,155 cents a bushel in the second quarter, 1,130 in the third, and 1,105 in the fourth. The second quarter could still hold elevated values thanks to crude oil support and hopes of more US-China engagement, but the market is likely to refocus later on the size of the 2026/27 US crop and on looser global fundamentals.
Another large Brazilian crop is central to that bearish case. BMI said a second straight record harvest in Brazil, combined with higher US soybean acreage, should cap upside potential as more physical supply reaches world markets. Risks remain on both sides: a more formal purchasing agreement with China or stronger Chinese buying could support prices, while the base case still assumes that geopolitical and trade-related premiums gradually fade as global soybean supplies expand.