Kansas wheat crop heads for worst year since 1972 under drought and rising costs
Kansas wheat growers are heading into harvest under severe drought, disease pressure and higher input costs, with U.S. production projected at its lowest since 1972.
Orville Williams, a wheat farmer near Montezuma, Kansas, says the current season feels unlike the difficult years he has seen before on his 2,600-acre farm. Over decades he has lived through economic stress and repeated droughts, but he told AP that this season is especially punishing. As harvest approaches, his assessment is blunt: it is not going to be a good year.
The crop is being squeezed by record-setting drought, hotter-than-average temperatures mixed with sharp drops, and disease pressure from wheat streak mosaic virus and barley yellow dwarf virus. At the same time, farmers are dealing with higher costs for fertilizer, diesel fuel and tariffs. In the AP account, that combination of weather stress and input inflation amounts to a double blow for long-established wheat growers across the Plains.
U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates show how deep the damage could be. National wheat production is projected at 1.56 billion bushels in 2026, down 21 percent from 2025 and the smallest crop by volume since 1972. For Kansas, one of the biggest wheat-producing states, the impact is particularly severe. As of May 17, 58 percent of the state’s wheat crop was rated poor or very poor, and conditions have been this bad only a handful of times in the past four decades; the last similarly weak year came during the severe drought of 2023.
With prospects deteriorating, many growers have filed crop-insurance claims or are reconsidering what they can rely on this season. Williams said his irrigated wheat yielded close to 100 bushels per acre last year, but this year may produce only 30 to 40. On dryland fields that depend on rainfall and soil moisture, he expects just 10 to 15 bushels per acre. Farmers interviewed by AP said they already know they will lose money and are postponing any purchases beyond basic needs.
Researchers and officials quoted in the report say climate change has made wheat and other crop production increasingly difficult over time. USDA data show the dry conditions accelerated crop development, which is not a positive signal for harvest quality. By the end of the first full week of May, 86 percent of Kansas wheat had produced a seed head, compared with a typical 61 percent for the same point in the previous ten years. If the plant heads too early, grain quality often suffers.
Acreage data add to the warning. Only 32.4 million acres of wheat were planted this season, while harvested acreage is estimated at 22 million. That puts abandonment at slightly above 32 percent of this year’s crop. USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey said that, apart from the 2022-2023 cycle, there have been only a few years in history when winter-wheat abandonment was higher. For the market, that means pressure not just on farm incomes but also on the cost of wheat-based food for consumers.