India's wheat production likely to face climate-related challenges this crop year
Experts warn that the ongoing El Nino and delayed Kharif harvests could pose significant risks to India’s upcoming wheat crop, amid global market volatility.
India’s wheat production for the 2026-2027 crop year could be significantly hampered by changing climatic conditions, experts stated during a recent Wheat Products Promotion Society CEO Conclave in Varanasi. The primary concern among industry leaders is the impact of the El Nino phenomenon, which is currently beginning to affect weather patterns across the country, potentially threatening the upcoming rabi (winter) crop season.
Jatin Singh, founder and managing director of Skymet, highlighted that the performance of the south-west monsoon is currently concerning. He warned that by September, significant agricultural damage could already be realized. While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has refrained from declaring drought conditions since 2016, experts at the conclave noted that the current environment is reminiscent of a drought year, placing immense pressure on agricultural planning.
A key complication is the delayed harvest of Kharif (monsoon) crops. This delay naturally pushes back the sowing window for wheat, exposing the crop to unfavorable weather risks. Somnath Chatterjee, executive vice-president at ITC Food Division, emphasized that the wheat market is already grappling with high volatility driven by geopolitical tensions in West Asia and deep-seated fears regarding the impact of El Nino on domestic production yields.
Despite the risks, data from Agpulse Analytics show that nations like India and China have successfully increased wheat production capacity to 170 million tonnes, up from 150 million tonnes previously. However, global analysts remain cautious. Rory Deverell, a principal consultant at Black Silo Commodity Consulting, noted that while the market is well-supplied, thanks largely to consistent stocks from the Black Sea region, future price discovery remains a challenge for farmers and millers alike.
The discussions at the conclave also focused on essential reforms, including the need for increased investment in agricultural research and development and the implementation of hedging tools to mitigate price risk. Major Rajiv Yadav of Rajshubh Agri LLP and other industry experts called for greater transparency in procurement, focusing on quality-based pricing, such as protein content, to ensure food security and economic stability for producers in an increasingly volatile global landscape.