India’s corn exports seen rising to 2.4 million tonnes in MY25-26 on weak prices
USDA's local office has raised its estimate for India's 2025/26 corn exports to 2.4 million tonnes as weak domestic prices fuel strong demand from nearby markets.
India could export as much as 2.4 million tonnes of corn in the 2025/26 marketing year ending in October, as relatively weak domestic prices have made Indian grain more attractive to nearby buyers. The Hindu BusinessLine, citing the local USDA office, reported that the export estimate has been raised sharply from an earlier projection of 1 million tonnes after strong shipment trends in recent months.
The article says India exported 996,000 tonnes of corn in the first five months of MY2025/26, covering November 2025 through March 2026. That is more than three times the volume shipped in the same period a year earlier, with monthly exports running at roughly 200,000 tonnes. Bangladesh, Vietnam, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan were identified as key destinations, helped by lower freight costs and the ease of sending smaller consignments.
At the same time, the USDA Post lowered its import estimate for India to 50,000 tonnes. It argues that current price parity versus corn from other origins should allow India to remain competitive in neighbouring markets through the balance of the season. Even so, the article notes that export prospects may weaken in MY2026/27, when the local USDA office forecasts exports falling back to 1 million tonnes because of tighter domestic supplies and steady growth in local demand.
India's maize sowing also remains an important part of the story. As of June 19, planted area was slightly ahead of last year at 5.69 lakh hectares, compared with 5.34 lakh hectares a year earlier, despite the delayed onset and sluggish progress of the monsoon across key producing areas in central India. Last kharif season, maize was planted on a record 98.61 lakh hectares, which supports expectations of ample supply if weather conditions remain manageable.
The third advance estimate for India's 2025/26 maize crop has been raised to a new record of 55 million tonnes, up 27 per cent from the previous year. According to the report, that jump reflects record planting, better yields, above-normal monsoon conditions last year and relatively firm prices in the previous marketing season. For 2026/27, however, the government increased the minimum support price for maize by only Rs 10 to Rs 2,410 per quintal.
Despite that adjustment, market prices have been running below the MSP for several months. The article says average spot prices in major producing and consuming states in May 2026 ranged from Rs 17,950 to Rs 21,000 per tonne, around 14 per cent below last year's level and almost 19 per cent below the official support price. That creates a mixed picture for the farm economy: low prices are helping exports now, but they also squeeze farmer returns and leave the sector more exposed to weather risks and domestic demand shifts in the next season.