India’s 2026 cotton area may expand as prices recover and El Nino risk shifts sowing plans
Market participants expect India’s cotton area to grow in 2026 as stronger prices and possible El Nino conditions make the crop more attractive.
India could see a notable increase in cotton acreage in the 2026 kharif season, with some market participants pointing to growth of 10% to 20%. The Hindu BusinessLine reported that the shift is being supported by a rebound in domestic cotton prices, expectations of firmer global fibre demand and forecasts of possible El Nino conditions that could bring below-normal rainfall. In a tighter monsoon scenario, cotton is being reassessed as a more resilient choice than more water-intensive crops.
Seed movement is already shaping the outlook. Cotton seed placement has begun in the North Zone, including Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, where sowing is expected to start within the next couple of weeks. Atul S. Ganatra, former president of the Cotton Association of India, said cotton sowing next year could rise by 20%. He linked that view partly to Maharashtra, where farmers using HTBT seed reportedly achieved strong yields and where the state’s cotton crop is expected to rise to 115 lakh bales from 90 lakh bales a year earlier.
Price incentives have also improved. Ganatra said most cotton farmers have recently received prices well above the minimum support price of Rs 8,100 per quintal. If the next season’s MSP rises by around Rs 500 to Rs 8,600, he said growers could move more decisively toward cotton. The crop’s lower water requirement adds to its appeal, because delayed or weaker rains often push farmers away from paddy and toward crops that can better tolerate a drier kharif season.
Recent acreage and output data show why the debate matters. India’s cotton area had fallen to 110.03 lakh hectares in kharif 2025 from 112.97 lakh hectares the previous year as some growers shifted to maize and pulses. According to second advance estimates, 2025-26 cotton output stood at 290.91 lakh bales of 170 kilograms each, compared with 297.24 lakh bales in the previous season. The Federation of Seed Industry of India said acreage may at least hold near 110 lakh hectares, while El Nino expectations could still push the crop higher because of its drought-tolerant profile.
Broader market conditions may add support. Bhagirath Chaudhary of the South Asia Biotechnology Centre said oil prices above $100 a barrel could erode the cost advantage of petroleum-based synthetic fibres and create a strategic opening for cotton, a chain that affects about 70 lakh Indian farmers. He also argued that price tailwinds alone will not be enough and that India needs faster policy movement on biotechnology, including next-generation traits and high-density planting systems. Internationally, the comparison also looks favourable for India: the US National Cotton Council projects 2026 acreage at 9 million acres, about 3.2% below 2025, while Australia is also expected to reduce output because of water constraints and acreage adjustments.