India says El Niño risks to farming are manageable with stronger irrigation and seed buffers
India says a possible El Niño in 2026 should be less damaging to agriculture than in earlier episodes. Officials are pointing to higher reservoir levels, wider micro-irrigation coverage and contingency plans down to district level.
India’s government says a possible El Niño in 2026 is unlikely to damage agriculture as severely as in past episodes. The assessment was presented during a preparatory meeting for the kharif season, which begins with the southwest monsoon in June and accounts for a major share of the country’s annual farm output.
The trigger for the discussion was the latest India Meteorological Department outlook. IMD has forecast monsoon rainfall this year at about 92 per cent of the long-period average and warned that El Niño conditions could develop during the season. A final forecast is due in late May, but the government has already shifted into contingency planning mode.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan told the meeting that farmers should not be overly concerned. The government’s confidence rests first on water availability. Officials said reservoir storage across the country currently stands at 127 per cent of the normal level for this time of year, creating a larger irrigation buffer if rains disappoint early in the season.
A second pillar is seed and technology preparedness. Authorities said seed stocks for both the coming kharif season and the following rabi season have been secured above requirement, with emergency reserves available if farmers need to replant or switch crops. India has also expanded micro-irrigation networks, introduced more climate-resilient seed varieties and improved early-warning systems, changes officials say have reduced vulnerability compared with earlier El Niño years.
The ministry contrasted current conditions with the 2000-2016 El Niño episodes, when crop losses were more severe because farm production depended more heavily on rainfall. Officials said risks can now be managed with more targeted interventions. Paddy, the main kharif crop, was described as comparatively more stable, while contingency measures are being prepared for crops seen as more exposed to rainfall shortfalls.
Chouhan directed state governments to activate plans down to district level and promote drought-tolerant varieties as well as delayed sowing strategies if conditions worsen. The ministry added that a crop-weather monitoring mechanism is already in place and that coordination between the Centre and the states is ongoing. The message to the market is that New Delhi is trying to soften the impact of a weak monsoon before it translates into larger production or income losses.