Hormuz disruption threatens fertiliser flows and raises global food-security risks
The United Nations warns that blocked fertiliser shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could push another 45 million people toward hunger and damage crop production in Africa and Asia.
Disruption to fertiliser shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could turn into a full-scale food crisis if the route is not reopened quickly. Channel NewsAsia, citing AFP, reported that Jorge Moreira da Silva, who leads a UN task force set up to avert the emergency, said another 45 million people could be pushed into hunger and starvation if fertilisers and key raw materials do not start moving again.
The scale of the risk is unusually high because roughly one-third of the world’s fertilisers normally pass through Hormuz. Since late February, Iran has kept the strategic waterway in a chokehold amid the regional conflict, disrupting trade at a critical point in planting calendars. The issue involves not only finished fertiliser products but also essential inputs such as ammonia, sulphur and urea that underpin manufacturing and field application.
The United Nations created a special mechanism in March to facilitate the passage of fertilisers and related raw materials. Moreira da Silva said the mechanism could be operational within seven days, but what is missing is political backing. He said he has already engaged more than 100 countries, yet the United States, Iran and key Gulf fertiliser-producing states are still not fully aligned behind the plan.
The timing is severe because even an immediate reopening would not normalise trade overnight. The UN estimates it would still take three to four months for conditions to return to normal. In some African countries, however, planting windows close within weeks. The task force believes that allowing just five vessels a day carrying fertilisers and related materials through the strait would already be enough to prevent the worst phase of the crisis for farmers.
Food prices have not yet fully surged, but the UN says fertiliser costs have already risen sharply. Experts warn that sustained high prices and physical shortages would likely cut agricultural productivity and then feed directly into food inflation. Countries in Africa and Asia are seen as especially vulnerable because many depend heavily on imported nutrients and have limited financial capacity to absorb another input shock.
For agriculture, this makes the Hormuz standoff more than an energy story. If the disruption lasts, growers may reduce application rates, change cropping plans or face lower yields in the next production cycle. In that sense, the logistics blockage is becoming a direct farm-input and food-security event, with consequences for production costs, global trade flows and the risk of a much wider humanitarian fallout.